網絡論壇是一種主要的互聯網應用，人們對它的研究主要集中在話題分析、變化趨勢分析等方面。該文研究網絡論壇中文章數隨
時間變化的統計特性，通過方差分析、R/S 分析方法發現自相似性存在于網絡論壇中。為描述這種自相似性，提出一種基于時延厚尾分布
的產生式模型，對該模型進行理論與仿真分析，驗證了該模型具有表達網絡論壇自相似性的能力，模型的計算復雜度小。
關鍵詞：網絡論壇；自相似性；產生式模型
Self-similarity and Modeling of Web-based Forum
ZENG Jian-ping, ZHANG Shi-yong
(School of Computer, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433)
【Abstract】Web-based forum is one of important applications on Internet. More and more research has been focused on it, such as topic analysis,
trend analysis. This paper concentrates on the statistical character of the posting number in Web-based forum. By means of variance analysis and R/S
analysis, finds that self-similarity generally exists in Web-based forum. A generative model based on time-delay levy distribution is proposed to
describe the kind of property. Theoretic and simulation analysis are done to verify the effectiveness of the model and show that the computation
complexity is low.
【Key words】Web-based forum; self-similarity; generative model